Modeling built-up land dynamics to support spatial resilience and national defense planning in Lampung province
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.58524/app.sci.def.v4i2.1453Keywords:
Built-up Land, Panel Data Analysis, Remote SensingAbstract
Background: The expansion of built-up areas in Lampung Province has continued alongside population growth and economic development. This expansion has the potential to reduce productive land, intensify environmental pressure, and create significant challenges for spatial planning. Consequently, understanding the factors that influence built-up land expansion is essential to supporting sustainable regional planning and development.
Aims: This study investigates the dynamics of built-up land expansion in Lampung Province through an integrated analysis of remote sensing data and panel data.
Method: The study employed a panel data approach combining time-series observations spanning 2014 to 2024 with cross-sectional data drawn from 15 regencies and municipalities in Lampung Province. The dependent variable was the extent of built-up land (Y), derived from remote sensing image classification. The explanatory variables consisted of the number of schools (X1), the Human Development Index (HDI) (X2), and road length (X3). The school variable encompassed educational institutions across all levels. Data on HDI and the number of schools were obtained from BPS-Statistics Indonesia for Lampung Province. Road length was estimated from Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery through road digitization and geometric attribute analysis conducted within a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based analytical framework.
Result: The results demonstrate that remote sensing provides comprehensive information on built-up areas and road networks, which can be effectively incorporated into panel data analysis. FEM produced an R-squared value of 0.984050, suggesting that the explanatory variables collectively explain approximately 98.41% of the variation in built-up land area.
Conclusion: The findings indicate that built-up land expansion is associated with socioeconomic and infrastructure-related factors. The Fixed Effects Model reveals that HDI and road length have significant positive effects on built-up area, while the number of schools exhibits a negative effect. These results suggest that improvements in human development and regional accessibility are associated with the expansion of built-up areas, whereas the negative relationship with the number of schools may reflect prevailing patterns in the distribution of educational facilities and regional service provision.
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